The Cutler Trade: The Winners and The Losers

(originally written after the Cutler trade but delayed in posting)

Over the past few years, Tom Brady has been a persistent thorn on the sides of many teams. Franchises like the Colts, the Chargers and all the AFC East teams have frequently found themselves in the wrong side of a Brady-led beat-down, while the Patriots have found themselves the envy of the League, largely down to their quarterback’s play. Despite his injury, however, it seems that the 2007 MVP can now lay claim to another franchise as his victim.

For Brady’s season-ending injury back in Week 1 set in motion a chain of events that culminated in the Denver Broncos mortgaging their future by trading their young franchise quarterback: Jay Cutler. Brady was naturally replaced in the starting line-up by Matt Cassell, who went on to raise many eyebrows in a career-making season that inevitably made him the target of many come the off-season. While the Patriots tried to protect him with a franchise tag, they nonetheless understandably traded him to the Kansas City Chiefs. With Brady returning, Cassell was now an expensive luxury that the Patriots could cash in, yet another fortunate investment that would make the rich even richer, and the Chiefs readily obliged.

When the dust settled on the trade, it emerged that Denver had shown itself willing to trade for Cassell as part of a three-way exchange that would see Cutler go elsewhere, allegedly Tampa Bay. Cutler – on the back of a Pro Bowl season that seemed to show that the Broncos had finally found a successor to John Elway – naturally took offence at being placed in the trading block by Josh McDaniels, Denver’s new coach who had a relationship with Cassell following his years as New England’s offensive co-ordinator. In public and presumably in private, Cutler expressed his outrage at his new coach’s dismissal of his status as Denver’s leader for the next ten years and demanded to be traded. A bitter and highly-publicised exchange of words followed, after which the franchise cut their losses and traded Cutler to the Chicago Bears for Kyle Orton and some valuable first and third round picks spread over the next two years. And Brady heads back to training camp.

The trade makes sense for the Chicago Bears. Given Cutler’s steadily improving performances since his arrival in the League three seasons ago, the Bears jumped at the opportunity to snap him up, albeit at considerable cost. Following the McMahon-Quinn-Grossman-Orton wilderness that has been the Bears’ quarterback situation over these past few years, Cutler finally brings them some much-needed quality and stability under center, particularly as he heads towards the peak of his career. Unexpectedly, the Bears have landed one of the League’s hottest young quarterback commodities, and he is expected to contribute from the start. Chicago also suddenly finds itself with the best quarterback in the NFC North, an important factor should Aaron Rodgers’ development continue. And, with no heirs lined up, the Bears have solidified a key position for the long term.

The same, however, cannot be said for the Broncos. A team that has struggled to replace the iconic Elway, they seemed to have struck gold with Cutler, who, after all, was the third quarterback drafted back in 2006. He had formed an excellent relationship with Brandon Marshall – from the same draft class – and sown the seeds for a Manning/Harrison-style partnership that would serve Denver for many years. With other players such as Eddie Royal and Tony Scheffler also blossoming at the receiving end of Cutler’s passes, the Broncos were only a running back and a few defensive players away from being considered serious Super Bowl contenders.

Now, though, they are back to square one. Marshall has lost his triggerman, a factor which could impact on what has hitherto been a promising career. Kyle Orton is also certainly not the answer, a man who could not even hold his starting job in Chicago. In terms of arm strength, ability under pressure, and even leadership, the Broncos have suffered a serious setback. Without a viable running back, the passing game is of extreme importance to the Broncos (although they have consistently managed to succeed even without big-name backs), a game that was built entirely around Cutler. Although Denver has gained two first-round picks (meaning they will have four such picks in the next two years), it is evident that the difficulties in finding their next franchise quarterback through these might render them useless. After all, if a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush, then surely an established and developing quarterback is worth two players that might be good. One look at recent failures when it comes to drafting quarterbacks – David Carr, Alex Smith, Kyle Boller, Matt Leinart, Vince Young – should have shown the Broncos leadership that trading Cutler was not in the interest of the club.

But it was not in Cutler’s interest either. Although the Bears reached the Super Bowl only a few seasons ago, they are no longer considered Championship candidates, even with their new quarterback. Denver certainly seemed on the way up, whereas Chicago’s better days seem behind them. More importantly, their style of play is not one which will benefit Cutler. Chicago’s success lies on their newly-rejuvenated running game through Matt Forte, and on their still-stifling defence; even their special teams unit has contributed more to their accomplishments than the passing game. Like Grossman before him, Cutler will be asked to simply move the team forward and avoid turnovers. And whilst this might have served Grossman well when he got the team to the Super Bowl, it is hardly going to benefit Cutler’s numbers. The Bears have a weak corps of receivers and, given what they have given in return, are unlikely to be drafting any new ones any time soon. The likes of Marshall and Royal are now replaced by unproven players at the wide receiver position (Earl Bennett, Devin Hester), a host of rookies (most notably Juaquin Iglesias) and a first-round tight end (Greg Olsen) who, while showing some potential, is still to emerge as a top target at this level. So, despite his enthusiasm at arriving in Chicago, Cutler might have just taken significant steps backwards.
Which makes the AFC powerhouses the real winners in this deal. New England, Indianapolis, Pittsburgh and San Diego (among others) must all be smiling wryly at the fact that a consistent threat in their division has been diminished by an inter-conference move. These teams will be glad to see the back of Cutler, a player reaching a prime which, alas, may now be beyond him.